The RV industry will weather the economic crisis arising from the COVID-19 pandemic, though not unscathed and not right away. And manufacturers will have to adapt to potentially changing social norms in the coronavirus’ wake, according to one industry analyst.
This story by Aimee Ambrose originally appeared in the Goshen News.
Richard Curtin, director of surveys of consumers at the University of Michigan, shared his insights on what the industry faces and current consumer attitudes during a webinar hosted by the RV Industry Association Wednesday.
“I believe that the strong attachment to the RV lifestyle will ultimately prevail, but the road back to record-setting sales will be slow and bumpy,” Curtin said.
He predicts an economic recovery won’t begin occurring until possibly later this year with a small rebound if the COVID-19 outbreak wanes and plants start reopening soon. The number of RV shipments will likely bottom out in the second quarter that started this month, but there could be slow increases by the third or fourth quarters. Shipments this year won’t match 2019 levels, and he sees the numbers for 2021 being higher than 2020.
Curtin wouldn’t put numbers on his estimates since everything depends on COVID-19. The outbreak is driving the current downturn, and he doesn’t know when it will be resolved.
Consumers, he said, still view health as a higher priority now than finances, including those who recently became unemployed, based on recent data and reports.
“At some time in the future, consumers will move from mainly being concerned about the health impacts of the pandemic to the financial impacts of the pandemic, but that’s not happened yet,” Curtin said.
Amid the present uncertainty, he said state governments, industries and consumers will have to consider difficult decisions weighing acceptable infection and death rates against resuming normal social and business functions.