The RV Industry Association reported that shipments in January reached 33,000 units, a 29 percent jump from the 25,500 units that were shipped in the same month in 2019.
But then uncertainty, and the coronavirus scare, set in, bringing concerns about a skittish market and trade disruptions.
This story by Ed Semmler originally appeared in the South Bend Tribune.
Considering the questions, longtime RV analyst Richard Curtin, a professor at the University of Michigan’s Survey Research Center, recently offered a wide-ranging prediction for shipments for the year – anywhere from 380,300 to 420,200 units.
He ultimately settled in the middle, predicting that 410,100 units would be shipped in 2020, still a 1 percent increase compared to the prior year.
Elkhart County is the epicenter of the RV industry, employing thousands of people in the region at local factories and suppliers.
Ball State University economist Michael Hicks said even a short supply disruption, coupled with stock market declines, would hit manufacturing-dependent states such as Indiana particularly hard.
“If the factories open up next week, there’s still going to be some disruption,” said Hicks, who pointed out that the automotive industry is also dependent on various components made in China. “If it hangs on a couple of months, there’s going to be widespread disruption.”
Just as important is the impact on consumer confidence if the stock market continues to tumble. “If you’re feeling poorer,” Hicks said, “are you going to step up and make that purchase?” of an RV.
But reflecting the difficulty of trying to assess the impact of the virus, Hicks also pointed out that low interest rates could work in the favor of the RV industry, as well as the tendency of Americans to flock to camping when they’re worried about more exotic travel overseas or on cruise ships.
That’s what helped propel the industry in the aftermath of the 9/11 terror attacks.
For its part, RV industry leaders continue to project confidence.
“The industry is cautiously optimistic that the coronavirus and the election will have a minimal impact and that we’ll have another strong year in 2020,” said Bill Baker, senior director of research for RVIA.