Elkhart, Ind., calls itself the “RV Capital of the World” — more than 80 percent of the vehicles sold in the U.S. are made in Elkhart and the surrounding area, according to the RV Industry Association — and President Trump’s tariffs on imported steel and aluminum are increasing costs, diminishing demand and causing concern that a 10-year boom cycle could be waning.
The full article by Michael Tackett can be read in The New York Times.
Shipments of motorhomes were down 18.7 percent in June compared with a year ago, and shipments of smaller trailers and campers were down 10.5 percent, according to the RVIA. Motorhome shipments were down 6.5 percent in July, but overall shipments were up 10 percent compared with the same month last year. Some companies have cut back to four-day workweeks. Amid strong job gains nationally, hints of rising wages and solid overall economic growth, Elkhart’s health is decidedly ambiguous.
“I think it’s a yellow light,” said Richard Curtin, a University of Michigan economist who is a consultant to the RV industry. “Depending on how things evolve in six months, it could be a red light, getting to the end of the expansion.”
It could also be temporary if, as some in the industry think, the problem is related to excess inventory, he said. Still, the health of the industry, which has a track record as an economic bellwether, bears watching. “RVs have always preceded the rest of the economy in a downturn and in an upturn,” Curtin said.
Frank Hugelmeyer, RVIA’s president, declined to comment.
The impact of the president’s tariffs on everything from steel to soybeans is playing out against the backdrop of the midterm elections, with some Republicans trying to make a robust economy central to their case for maintaining control of Congress. In Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota and other states, the president’s policies are starting to be felt, especially in industries that have large trading relationships with China.
