AAA projects 72.2 million people will travel at least 50 miles or more from home over the Independence Day holiday period from Saturday, June 28 to Sunday, July 6. This year’s domestic travel forecast is an increase of 1.7 million travelers compared to last year and 7 million more than in 2019. AAA’s Independence Day forecast includes two weekends instead of one to better reflect the flow of holiday travelers.
“Summertime is one of the busiest travel seasons of the year, and July 4th is one of the most popular times to get away,” said Stacey Barber, vice president of AAA Travel. “Following Memorial Day’s record forecast, AAA is seeing strong demand for road trips and air travel over Independence Day week. With the holiday falling on a Friday, travelers have the option of making it a long weekend or taking the entire week to make memories with family and friends.”
Independence Day Travelers by Mode of Transportation
By Car: AAA projects 61.6 million people will travel by car, a 2.2% increase over last year, and the highest volume on record. This Independence Day holiday period is expected to see an additional 1.3 million road travelers compared to 2024. AAA recommends getting routine vehicle maintenance ahead of your trip and packing an emergency kit. Last July 4th week, AAA responded to nearly 700,000 emergency roadside assistance calls for issues like dead batteries and flat tires, plus people locking themselves out of their car or running out of gas.
Drivers are seeing some increases at the pump, but summer gas prices are still the lowest they’ve been since 2021. This year, the price of crude oil has kept gas prices on the lower side. The Israel Iran conflict has driven up the price of oil in recent days but not dramatically. Escalation and duration of the conflict are two factors to watch. Weather is also a wild card. The Atlantic hurricane season is underway, and NOAA predicts a 60% chance of an above-normal season. Storms along the Gulf Coast can affect oil refineries and disrupt fuel deliveries, leading to a temporary increase in gas prices.
For travelers who are renting cars, AAA car rental partner Hertz says Thursday, July 3 is expected to be the busiest day to pick up vehicles. Some of the top destinations based on advanced bookings are also on AAA’s list of most popular places to visit over July 4th: Orlando, Denver, Boston, Oahu and Seattle. Hertz says most drivers are looking to rent SUVs and midsize sedans.
By Air: The number of people traveling by air is also projected to set a new record. AAA expects 5.84 million travelers will fly to their destinations; that’s 8% of all Independence Day travelers. This year’s projection is a 1.4% increase over the previous record set last Independence Day week of 5.76 million air travelers.
According to AAA data, which is based on what travelers paid when they booked their July 4th trips, a roundtrip domestic flight is averaging $810, 4% more expensive than last year. When booking last-minute flights for summer trips, consider flying on weekdays like Tuesdays or Wednesdays for the best deals.
By Other Modes: Travel by other modes is expected to grow by 7.4% over last year. AAA projects 4.78 million people will travel by bus, train, or cruise. This year’s number is just shy of the 2019 record of 4.79 million. Cruising is driving the popularity of this category, particularly this time of year, when Alaska cruise season is in full swing.
See the full forecast from AAA here.
*Independence Day Holiday Travel Period – For this forecast, the Independence Day holiday travel period is defined as the nine-day period from Saturday, June 28 to Sunday, July 6. Historically, this holiday period included only one weekend. The expanded travel window was instituted starting in 2024 with historical results calculated back to 2019 using the new nine-day period.
