The following is a report from the Associated Press.
The Federal Reserve faces an unusually contentious meeting this week that will test Chair Jerome Powell’s ability to corral the necessary support from fellow policymakers for a third straight interest rate cut.
The Fed’s 19-member rate-setting committee is sharply divided over whether to lower borrowing costs again. The divisions have been exacerbated by the convoluted nature of the economy: Inflation remains elevated, which would typically lead the Fed to keep its key rate unchanged, while hiring is weak and the unemployment rate has risen, which often leads to rate cuts.
Some economists expect three Fed officials could vote against the quarter-point cut that Powell is likely to support at the Dec. 9-10 meeting, which would be the most dissenting votes in six years. Just 12 of the 19 members vote on rate decisions. Several of the non-voting officials have also said they oppose another rate cut.
“It’s just a really tricky time. Perfectly sensible people can reach different answers,” said William English, an economist at the Yale School of Management and a former top Fed staff member. “And the committee kind of likes to work by consensus, but this is a situation where that consensus is hard to reach.”
The debate, which has also been fueled by a lack of official federal data on employment and inflation during the government shutdown, could be a preview of where the Fed is headed after Powell’s term as chair ends in May. His successor will be appointed by President Donald Trump and is widely expected to be Kevin Hassett, the top White House economic adviser. Hassett may push for faster cuts than other officials would be willing to support.
English said the potential for greater disagreement could be seen as a sign of healthy debate between different views. The Fed’s tradition of reaching unanimous or nearly-unanimous decisions has often been criticized as evidence of “groupthink.” Yet some Fed officials warn that there are downsides to sharp splits. If the committee votes end up as 8-4 or even 7-5, then financial markets could lose confidence in where the central bank is headed next.
